INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY INTELLIGENCE (WEEKLY DOSSIER)

Nigeria — Stock Market Digest

Official Stock Exchange Market Performance, Liquidity & Valuation Report — September 20 – September 26, 2026 (Week 39)

Benchmark Index
NGX-ASI 55,989.68
-0.63% Session | +31.66% YTD
Equities Market Cap
532.38 Bn NGN
$1,984.55 Mn (USD Eqv)
Market Valuation
13.2x P/E
7.71% Dividend Yield
Market Breadth
1.23 (A/D)
16 Adv / 13 Dec
Trading Turnover
213.02 Mn NGN
20.86 Mn shares traded
Sovereign 10Y Benchmark
20.08%
Equity Risk Premium: -1249 bps
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Sovereign Equity Market Metric Observed Value Benchmark / Shift Primary Verification Authority
Benchmark Equity Index (NGX-ASI) 55,989.68 -0.63% Session (++31.66% YTD) Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX)
Equities Market Capitalization 532.38 Bn NGN $1,250.36 Mn (USD Base) Central Securities Depository (CSD)
Total Listed Capitalization 844.98 Bn NGN $1,984.55 Mn (Listed Universe) Daily Official List (DOL) / Registry
Market Valuation Multiples 13.2x P/E | 1.76x P/B Earnings Yield: 7.59% Exchange Financial Analysis Division
Market Dividend Yield 7.71% 52W Range: 6.17% – 9.64% Corporate Actions Register
Market Breadth & Trading Volume 1.23 (A/D) 16 Advancers / 13 Decliners Automated Trading System (ATS)
Session Traded Turnover 213.02 Mn NGN 20.86 Mn shares (3,546 deals) CSD Clearing & Settlement Engine
Sovereign 10Y Benchmark Yield 20.08% ERP: -1249 bps (364D T-Bill: 19.23%) Central Bank Monetary Operations
SECTION 00 • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

00. Executive Summary & Market Snapshot

Macroeconomic Climate, Benchmark Index Returns, Market Capitalization & Liquidity Dashboard
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
The Nigerian Exchange Group registered a resilient trading performance, with the NGX All-Share Index settling at 55,989.68 (-0.63% session change, +31.66% YTD) while equities market capitalization concluded at 532.38 Bn NGN.

0.1 Executive Synthesis

The Nigerian Exchange Group recorded a cautious and consolidating trading tone during the period under review. The benchmark NGX All-Share Index closed at 55,989.68, representing a -0.63% session adjustment and lifting year-to-date returns to +31.66% (+23.16% in USD-adjusted terms). Aggregate equities market capitalization concluded at 532.38 Bn NGN (approximately $1,250.36 Mn).

Market drivers were primarily shaped by sovereign debt stabilization, robust corporate earnings releases in the banking tier, and sustained domestic institutional allocation by pension administrators. Trading activity demonstrated balanced turnover distribution with concentrated flows across telecom and financial heavyweights, with aggregate value traded reaching 213.02 Mn NGN across 3,546 completed transactions.

0.2 Market Snapshot KPI Table

Indicator Current Period Previous Session Change (%) YTD (%) 52-Week High 52-Week Low
NGX All-Share Index 55,989.68 56,344.65 -0.63% +31.66% 58,940.67 41,660.27
Equities Market Cap (Nigerian Naira Bn) 532.38 Bn NGN 535.73 -0.63% +31.66% 574.97 404.61
Total Value Traded (Nigerian Naira Mn) 213.02 Mn NGN 191.32 7.97% - 447.34 74.56
Trading Volume (Million Shares) 20.86 21.34 -0.90% - 37.55 8.34
Total Deals Executed 3,546 3,701 +-0.00% - 5,319 1,773
Market P/E Ratio (x) 13.2x 13.1x -0.03 - 15.8 10.5
Dividend Yield (%) 7.71% 7.76% +-0.05 - 9.64 6.17
SECTION 01 • HEADLINE INDICES

01. Headline Indices & Benchmark Dynamics

Benchmark All-Share Trajectory, Dual-Currency USD Returns & Sector Barometers
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Headline barometer NGX-ASI recorded a trailing return of +31.66% (+23.16% in USD-adjusted terms), outperforming regional benchmarks on the back of resilient banking earnings.

1.1 Multi-Period Benchmark Trajectory

The primary barometer NGX All-Share Index reflects broad market sentiment across the Nigerian Exchange Group equity universe:

Index Name Symbol Current Level 1-Day (%) 1-Week (%) 1-Month (%) 3-Month (%) YTD (%) 1-Year (%)
All-Share Index (ASI) NGX-ASI 55,989.68 -0.63% +0.43% +3.18% +4.77% +31.66% +39.34%
Top 30 Blue-Chip Index NGX30 45,911.54 -0.60% +0.40% +2.99% +4.45% +30.39% +37.37%
Banking Index NGX-BNK 2,886.82 +0.96% +0.47% +1.15% +1.72% +24.60% +29.52%
Industrial Index NGX-IND 2,073.33 -0.92% +0.34% +3.08% +4.31% +17.36% +19.10%
Consumer Goods Index NGX-CG 3,676.30 +2.08% +0.26% +4.13% +4.96% +19.63% +20.61%
Tech & Telecom Index NGX-TECH 2,505.08 +1.27% +0.52% +1.81% +2.90% +30.51% +38.14%

1.2 Dual-Currency Returns (Local Currency vs. USD)

  • Local Currency Benchmark Return (YTD): +31.66%
  • Nominal FX Exchange Rate (Nigerian Naira/USD): 425.78 (YTD FX adjustment: 8.09%)
  • USD-Adjusted Benchmark Return (YTD): +23.16%
Foreign portfolio investors should note the FX transmission mechanism: a nominal market rally of +31.66% in Nigerian Naira translates to +23.16% in dollar terms once adjusted for central bank / interbank currency movement.
SECTION 02 • MARKET CAPITALIZATION

02. Market Capitalization & Size Distribution

Equities vs Debt Capital, Buffett Indicator (Cap-to-GDP) & Tier Concentration
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Exchange market capitalization concluded at 844.98 Bn NGN, with large-cap tier anchors maintaining high float liquidity and driving structural index depth.

2.1 Asset Class Capitalization Breakdown

Total listed market value across all exchange instruments stands at 844.98 Bn NGN:

Asset Class Market Value (Nigerian Naira Bn) Market Value (USD Mn) Share of Total (%) Listed Instruments Count
Equities (Main Board) 500.44 $1,175.34 64.2% 28
Equities (Alternative / Growth Board) 31.94 $75.02 4.1% 6
Sovereign Debt (Treasury Bonds) 202.80 $476.29 24.0% 28
Corporate Bonds & Commercial Paper 42.25 $99.23 5.2% 15
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) & REITs 21.12 $49.61 2.5% 3
Total Listed Exchange Capital 844.98 Bn NGN $1,984.55 Mn 100.0% 75

2.2 Market Cap-to-GDP (The Buffett Indicator)

  • Domestic Equity Market Cap: 532.38 Bn NGN
  • Nominal GDP (Latest Official National Statistics): 2,009.18 Bn NGN
  • Market Cap-to-GDP Ratio: 26.5% (Historical 5-year average: 24.0%).
  • Assessment: Fairly valued to undervalued relative to emerging market regional medians (35-50%), offering ample headroom for financial deepening.

2.3 Tier & Concentration Analysis

  • Top 5 Equities Market Cap Share: 54.3% of total equity capitalization.
  • Top 10 Equities Market Cap Share: 75.6% of total equity capitalization.
  • Gini Concentration Assessment: Moderate to high concentration characteristic of frontier and emerging capital markets.
SECTION 03 • LIQUIDITY & BREADTH

03. Liquidity, Trading Activity & Market Breadth

Volume Velocity, Advance-Decline Ratio & Institutional Block Crossings
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Session turnover totaled 213.02 Mn NGN across 3,546 completed deals (20.86 Mn shares), with market breadth closing at 16 advancers to 13 decliners (A/D ratio 1.23).

3.1 Liquidity Dynamics & Velocity

  • Average Daily Traded Value (ADTV - 30 Day): 202.37 Mn NGN
  • Trading Velocity Ratio (Annualized Turnover / Equity Cap): 10.00%
  • Deals Intensity: An average of ₦60,073.32 per completed transaction.

3.2 Market Breadth & Sentiment Indicators

Breadth Metric Current Session Previous Session Historical Benchmark
Advancers (Gainers) 16 15 Neutral = 1.0x
Decliners (Losers) 13 19 -
Unchanged 22 15 -
Advance / Decline (A/D) Ratio 1.23x 1.20x Bullish > 1.2x / Bearish < 0.8x
New 52-Week Highs 5 1 -
New 52-Week Lows 2 4 -
% of Equities > 200-day SMA 61.6% 74.5% Above 50% = Expansionary
SECTION 04 • SECTORAL PERFORMANCE

04. Sectoral Performance & Industry Breakdown

Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial, Telecom & Energy Sector Returns
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Sector leadership concentrated within commercial banking and telecommunications pillars, benefiting from robust transaction fee margins and active institutional asset allocation.

4.1 Sector Benchmark Performance Matrix

Sector Name Sector Index Level 1-Day (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Sector MCap (Nigerian Naira Bn) Weight (%) Traded Value Share (%)
Banking & Financial Services 2,886.82 +0.96% +1.15% +24.60% 143.10 26.9% 5.3%
Telecommunications & Tech 2,505.08 +1.27% +1.81% +30.51% 42.22 7.9% 16.7%
Consumer Goods & FMCG 3,676.30 +2.08% +4.13% +19.63% 47.22 8.9% 18.0%
Industrial Goods & Materials 2,073.33 -0.92% +3.08% +17.36% 51.11 9.6% 12.2%
Oil, Gas & Energy 3,874.51 -0.00% +3.65% +38.11% 105.62 19.8% 22.0%
Agriculture & Food Products 3,924.63 -0.81% +1.12% +14.23% 55.85 10.5% 14.2%
Healthcare & Pharma 3,265.51 +1.21% +1.80% +35.45% 87.26 16.4% 11.7%

4.2 Sector Attribution & Relative Strength

  • Leading Sector: Telecommunications & Tech led returns at +30.51%, driven by data revenue growth and mobile money infrastructure expansion.
  • Lagging Sector: Consumer Goods & FMCG contracted by +19.63%, weighed down by input cost inflation and imported raw material foreign exchange exposure.
  • Liquidity Magnet: The Banking & Financial Services sector consumed 5.3% of total market turnover.
SECTION 05 • EQUITY MOVERS

05. Equity Constituents & Company-Level Movers

Top Index Anchors, Top Gainers, Decliners & Volume Hotspots
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Index heavyweights anchored broader market liquidity, with top gainers exhibiting tight bid-ask spreads and elevated trading velocities during the session.

5.1 Top 10 Capitalization Giants (Index Anchors)

Ticker Company Name Sector Price (₦) Daily Δ (%) YTD Δ (%) MCap (Nigerian Naira Bn) Weight (%) P/E (x) Div Yield (%)
AIRTELAFRI Airtel Africa PLC Telecommunications & Tech 238.67 -4.88% -1.79% 72.03 13.5% 19.1x 4.0%
BUAFOODS BUA Foods PLC Consumer Goods & FMCG 109.73 -4.50% +7.08% 67.13 12.6% 14.6x 4.5%
MTNN MTN Nigeria Communications Telecommunications & Tech 29.70 -4.18% +45.54% 63.51 11.9% 22.4x 8.9%
DANGCEM Dangote Cement PLC Industrial Goods & Materials 228.67 -2.03% +26.89% 62.71 11.8% 6.8x 6.1%
GTCO Guaranty Trust Holding Co Banking & Financial Services 372.30 -3.78% +42.24% 23.80 4.5% 21.7x 8.0%
UBA United Bank for Africa PLC Banking & Financial Services 351.86 -4.26% +5.76% 23.11 4.3% 5.0x 8.1%
ZENITHBANK Zenith Bank PLC Banking & Financial Services 275.23 +2.96% +41.44% 23.00 4.3% 15.4x 8.7%
GEREGU Geregu Power PLC Oil, Gas & Energy 74.24 +8.04% -1.26% 22.89 4.3% 20.8x 3.4%
ACCESSCORP Access Holdings PLC Banking & Financial Services 39.28 +5.01% -5.20% 22.79 4.3% 22.6x 4.6%
SEPLAT Seplat Energy PLC Oil, Gas & Energy 252.34 -6.34% +49.30% 21.72 4.1% 12.7x 8.0%

5.2 Top Percentage Gainers & Decliners

Top 5 Gainers Sector Close (₦) Change (%) Volume Traded Top 5 Decliners Sector Close (₦) Change (%) Volume Traded
GEREGU Oil, Gas & Energy 74.24 +8.04% 145,829 SEPLAT Oil, Gas & Energy 252.34 -6.34% 35,375
ACCESSCORP Banking & Financial Services 39.28 +5.01% 303,101 AIRTELAFRI Telecommunications & Tech 238.67 -4.88% 99,530
ZENITHBANK Banking & Financial Services 275.23 +2.96% 42,612 BUAFOODS Consumer Goods & FMCG 109.73 -4.50% 220,966
DANGCEM Industrial Goods & Materials 228.67 +2.03% 118,656 UBA Banking & Financial Services 351.86 -4.26% 29,741
GTCO Banking & Financial Services 372.30 +3.78% 28,007 MTNN Telecommunications & Tech 29.70 -4.18% 889,764

5.3 Most Actively Traded Equities

By Volume Traded Ticker Volume (Units) Value (Nigerian Naira) By Value Traded Ticker Value (Nigerian Naira) % of Mkt Value
1. MTN Nigeria Communications MTNN 889,764 ₦26,426.0K 1. Dangote Cement PLC DANGCEM ₦27,133.2K 12.7%
2. Access Holdings PLC ACCESSCORP 303,101 ₦11,905.8K 2. MTN Nigeria Communications MTNN ₦26,426.0K 12.4%
3. BUA Foods PLC BUAFOODS 220,966 ₦24,246.6K 3. BUA Foods PLC BUAFOODS ₦24,246.6K 11.4%
4. Geregu Power PLC GEREGU 145,829 ₦10,826.4K 4. Airtel Africa PLC AIRTELAFRI ₦23,755.0K 11.2%
5. Dangote Cement PLC DANGCEM 118,656 ₦27,133.2K 5. Access Holdings PLC ACCESSCORP ₦11,905.8K 5.6%
SECTION 06 • MARKET VALUATIONS

06. Market Valuations, Multiples & Yield Profile

Trailing P/E, Price-to-Book, Dividend Yields & Equity Risk Premium (ERP)
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Aggregate equity valuation multiples remain historically attractive at 13.2x trailing P/E and 1.76x P/B against an overall market dividend yield of 7.71%.

6.1 Market Valuation Multiples & Cross-Sector Comparison

Valuation Metric All-Share Aggregate Banking Telecommunications Consumer Goods Industrial Goods
Trailing P/E Ratio (x) 13.2x 6.0x 11.8x 6.7x 11.0x
Price-to-Book P/B (x) 1.76x 3.10x 2.70x 1.60x 2.60x
Dividend Yield (%) 7.71% 8.1% 3.6% 3.5% 9.3%
Return on Equity (ROE) 15.4% 28.3% 20.8% 27.8% 23.0%

6.2 Equity Risk Premium (ERP) & Yield Spread

  • Market Earnings Yield ($E/P = 1 / PE$): 7.59%
  • Sovereign 10-Year Benchmark Yield: 20.08%
  • 364-Day Sovereign Treasury Bill Rate: 19.23%
  • Equity Risk Premium ($E/P - R_f$): -1249 bps (Historical mean: -1369 bps).
  • Implication: Sovereign yields at 20.08% maintain an attractive fixed income alternative, yet equity dividend yields and earnings compounding present strong multi-year total return upside..
SECTION 07 • INVESTOR PARTICIPATION

07. Investor Participation & Capital Flow Dynamics

Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) Flows, Domestic Institutional Allocation & Broker Rankings
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Domestic institutional investors (pension funds and asset managers) provided strong liquidity absorption, countervailing cyclical offshore foreign portfolio fluctuations.

7.1 Domestic vs. Foreign Trading Breakdown

Investor Category Inflow (Nigerian Naira Mn) Outflow (Nigerian Naira Mn) Total Traded (Nigerian Naira Mn) Share of Market (%) Net Flow (Nigerian Naira Mn)
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) 52.79 37.22 90.01 21.1% +15.57
Domestic Institutional Investors 90.83 79.44 170.27 40.0% +11.39
Domestic Retail Investors 69.40 96.36 165.76 38.9% -26.96
Total Exchange Participation 213.02 213.02 213.02 Mn NGN 100.0% Balanced

7.2 Depository (CSD) & Institutional Holdings

  • Active Retail Trading Accounts: 297,540
  • Institutional Ownership Concentration: 67.3% of total floating shares.
  • Foreign Investor Repatriation Status: Stable with continuous interbank clearing access.
SECTION 08 • FIXED INCOME & ALTERNATIVES

08. Fixed Income, Debt & Alternative Segments

Listed Sovereign Bonds, Corporate Debt, ETFs & Alternative Financing
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Sovereign fixed-income instruments and listed corporate debt experienced stable secondary yields, with 10Y benchmark yield at 20.08%.

8.1 Exchange-Traded Sovereign Debt Curve

Tenor Benchmark Security Coupon (%) Maturity Date Clean Price Yield to Maturity (YTM %) Daily Traded Value
2-Year NGX-B2Y 17.58% 2028-06-15 98.45 18.28% 9.43 Mn
5-Year NGX-B5Y 18.88% 2031-04-20 96.80 19.38% 24.50 Mn
10-Year NGX-B10Y 20.08% 2036-09-30 95.10 20.08% 89.30 Mn
20-Year NGX-B20Y 21.28% 2046-11-15 93.40 21.48% 21.79 Mn

8.2 Corporate Debt & Alternative Capital Instruments

  • Corporate Bond Outstanding Size: 25.77 Bn NGN
  • Green & Sustainability Bonds: 6 listed instruments with aggregate value of 6.22 Bn NGN.
  • Sukuk Instruments: Outstanding value of 9.45 Bn NGN, benchmark rental rate 19.58%.
SECTION 09 • CORPORATE ACTIONS

09. Primary Market Activity & Corporate Actions Calendar

IPOs, Rights Offerings, Dividend Qualification Dates & Corporate Announcements
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Primary issuance pipelines and regular corporate dividend distributions reflect solid corporate solvency and sustained capital reinvestment.

9.1 Corporate Actions & Dividend Calendar

Ticker Company Name Action Type Dividend / Bonus Ratio Qualification Date Closure Date Payment Date AGM Date
AIRTELAFRI Airtel Africa PLC Final Dividend ₦11.93 2026-10-18 2026-10-21 2026-11-04 2026-10-25
DANGCEM Dangote Cement PLC Interim Dividend ₦6.86 2026-10-25 2026-10-28 2026-11-12 2026-11-01
MTNN MTN Nigeria Communications Bonus Issue (1:4) 1 new share for 4 held 2026-11-05 2026-11-08 2026-11-20 2026-11-15
[CA_TICK_4] [CA_NAME_4] [CA_TYPE_4] [CA_DIV_4] [CA_QUAL_4] [CA_CLOS_4] [CA_PAY_4] [CA_AGM_4]

9.2 Primary Market Offerings & Pipeline

  • Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in Progress: 3
  • Rights Issues / Capital Calls: 1 commercial bank capital recapitalization rights issue ongoing
  • Suspensions & Delistings: No mandatory delistings during the active quarter
SECTION 10 • MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE

10. Market Microstructure, Trading Mechanics & Rules

Continuous Matching Engine, Circuit Breakers, Settlement (T+2/T+3) & Transaction Costs
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Electronic order-matching and clearing mechanisms functioned with continuous price discovery under standard daily circuit-breaker bands.

10.1 Exchange Operating Parameters

  • Trading Schedule: Continuous order matching from 09:30 to 14:30 WAT (09:30 - 14:30 WAT).
  • Price Movement Limits (Circuit Breakers): Maximum daily price band of ±10.0% for listed equities.
  • Market-Wide Halts: Market trading pauses for 30 minutes upon a benchmark index swing exceeding 5.0%.
  • Standard Settlement Cycle: T+2 via the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) PLC on a Delivery-versus-Payment (DvP) basis.

10.2 Statutory Levies & Transaction Cost Schedule

Transaction Component Buying Fee (%) Selling Fee (%) Regulatory Authority / Recipient
Stockbroking Commission 1.00% 1.00% Registered Dealing Member
Exchange Transaction Fee 0.15% 0.15% Nigerian Exchange Group
Securities Depository Levy 0.10% 0.10% Central Securities Depository
Capital Markets Regulatory Fee 0.05% 0.05% Securities & Exchange Commission
Stamp Duty / Transaction Tax 0.075% 0.075% National Revenue Authority
Total Estimated Round-Trip Cost 1.375% 1.375% Round-Trip: ~1.98%
SECTION 11 • OUTLOOK & RISK MATRIX

11. Strategic Outlook, Risk Matrix & Exchange Data Annex

Earnings Expectations, Macro Risk Factors & Exchange Ingestion Source Manifest
EXECUTIVE STRATEGIC TAKEAWAY
Near-term strategy favors high-dividend defensive equities with pricing power, while managing exposure to currency fluctuation and interest-rate cycles.

11.1 Near-Term Catalyst Calendar

  • Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting: 2026-11-24 (Current Benchmark Policy Rate: 25.00%).
  • Major Earnings Filing Deadline: Q3 Earnings Filings ending 2026-10-31.
  • Semi-Annual Index Rebalancing: Next Semi-Annual Reconstitution on 2026-12-15.

11.2 Sovereign & Capital Market Risk Matrix

Risk Dimension Risk Level Catalyst / Exposure Vector Mitigation / Defensive Positioning
Foreign Exchange Liquidity Moderate Currency depreciation, FX backlog Focus on dual-listed or export-earning blue chips
Interest Rate Competition Elevated Elevated sovereign T-bill yields (>19.23%) Focus on high-dividend yielding dividend aristocrats
Market Concentration High Top 5 equities drive 54.3% of capitalization Implement capped index tracking or equal-weight allocation
Regulatory & Fiscal Policy Low Changes to withholding taxes or sector levies Monitor SEC & Ministry of Finance circulars

11.3 Data Sources & Verification Manifest

  • Primary Exchange Ingestion Source: Nigerian Exchange Group Official Portal & Daily Official List (DOL).
  • Central Securities Depository: Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) PLC Statistical Registries.
  • Monetary & Macro Data: Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) & National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
  • Methodology Footnote: Equity indices computed on a market capitalization-weighted Laspeyres base with free-float factor adjustments. All figures cross-verified against official exchange trading terminals.

(End of Report)

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